In for some controversial reading? Something that has a different approach on how to value the price of XRP? Well, here is my vision (original published date: 9 December 2017)
First of all, the usage of XRP for me is already determined. Ripplenet is getting a great support and I came to an understanding that with xRapid currently closing up the Alpha stage, the new users are not able to use xRapid + Ripplenet. As soon as it gets released into beta (or possibly skip beta) we will see a significant increase of XRP adoption by banks.
Anyway, we are not to talk about that, I guess it's pretty obvious bank adoption would drive the price up. I'm going to try to see how I see the future value of XRP. A lot of people in crypto always talk about market cap, they measure it by the value Bitcoin has and then divide the share they assume the coin they discuss to have a certain value of that in the future. Conservative thought, weird to see in the crypto space as we all try to fight the world from being too conservative about crypto. Yes, of course, if the value of bitcoin goes to 100.000 USD, the rest of the alts do move along with it, but is there really a maximum by stating up front that the market cap of a coin should never pass bitcoin?
The artificial limit in extend to bitcoin
In crypto - not passing bitcoin as bitcoin is sacred might be an obstacle that will remain for many years. But you will have to understand that XRP is different. XRP doesn't move in the cryptoworld like the other crypto's do. We already see that even after announcing great news, the tops and bottoms are less volatile than the other crypto's. What will happen when the volume really kicks in? People are saying 'banks will never pay more than a few $ per XRP as it would mean the transactions will cost too much for it to be the top pick' but is this true? Transaction costs can be scaled down in the future when needed, and knowing that Ripple wants XRP to remain the cheapest, it's unlikely that they wouldn't change it.
Another thing I hear a lot is that banks would not be interested in a higher priced XRP as they would 'not be willing to pay for it' but that's the exact opposite of what will happen. XRP is a vessel, the larger XRP will have as value, the more value can be transferred. And banks have a lot of value to transfer. This would mean that banks would benefit if the price of XRP goes upwards. How far can it go? Well, in my understanding, it would go as high as the banks need it to be. If they want to transfer a trillion payments per day, they will quickly run out of XRP and will have to buy more. So, the price will keep increasing once it is adopted and used.
The limit of XRP
What will be the limit? Well, that is hard to estimate, when more and more banks use it, less XRP is there to go around so the price of XRP must go up from that point. There will be a moment in time where the price is 'satisfying' and should be stable from that point, you can then see XRP as a currency. And what about the market cap? Well you can calculate one, but will it limit the price? No! And why not? because the use case doesn’t care for the market cap as a limit but as a starting point. 'today we can send out x-amount of billion, tomorrow this may be x trillion. The value should always be aimed higher for future growth, so I can no longer say 'XRP could have a maximum amount of [random number] in dollars'.
If you follow this path you might understand how bright the future for XRP would be. It also indicates how insignificant we as 'traders' in regards to XRP - our influence on the price will stop completely as soon as it’s being adopted by the banks, we will just ride along with the world as XRP will be used more often and perhaps create more use cases, like the XRP credit card where it would be possible to pair with all currencies in the world so you would no longer need to have 10 different currency bank accounts as a business who trades overseas.
In the future, the value of XRP is unlimited as the market cap is unlimited. There is no reason why it should 'stay in the path created by Bitcoin' as it has no correlation with Bitcoin nor bitcoin's value in the future. If XRP goes to 10$ that would be great but it could easily go beyond that if the banks are in need of a higher price to transfer money around. This is my vision on the price and the reason why I'm seeing XRP as a solid long-term investment!